Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Personal Optimism & Stats Regarding Preds Attendance Numbers

In the game against the Maple Leafs on Monday, three themes that were bigger than the game got lost in the noise following was a very tough loss.
  1. A great attendance number...
  2. Which leads to an even better aggregate attendance number.
  3. The return of the TV timeout.  
A Great Attendance Number

Monday, Jan. 18, 2010 vs. TOR: 16,510 in reported attendance.
Monday, Jan. 19, 2009 vs. NJD: 14,848 in reported attendance.

Monday, Jan. 18, 2010's game vs. TOR was nearly a sold out game.  Of the 21 Monday or Tuesday games played at home so far this year and last year, it was the second best attendance (with the best being last year's sold out season finale).

The statistics are to prove a point.  The attendance numbers are starting to look really strong in PredNation.  How strong?

An Even Better Attendance Number

According to my totally unofficial, home-brewed (but fairly predictive) calculations, Monday's game was pivotal.  All season, the Preds have been trailing behind their ticket sales from last year, by about 2%.  That margin, however, has been shrinking.  Last night's game flipped the script, if you will.

Through 25 games, the Preds are actually ahead of last year's paid attendance number.  Sure, its not by much, but that is not the point.  What is the point?  The "second half playoff push" that the Preds typically rely on has come on early, strong, and fast.  The "magic number" (i.e. the average paid attendance that is needed for the preds to average 14,000 paid attendance for the year) is 15084 +/-.  The paid (not reported) attendance for the last six games, 15528 +/-?  (The average reported attendance for the last six games was 16,220).  Barring a complete meltdown on the ice, expect that to continue and the Preds to beat the 14,000 paid attendance benchmark (again) by a comfortable margin.  March & April feature 12 home games that provide for a specular, and well attended, playoff push to the finish.

If I'm right [and though I trust my calculations based on publicly available information, I can't want for the next round of attendance numbers to be released, to let me know I'm right] it is a big accomplishment, given the early troubles for NHL attendance overall this year, the economy, etc.

Return of the TV Timeout

I know some die-hard fans and bloggers that I respect (including The View from 111) were furious at last night's game.  I can't argue with that.  But I can say this.  That was an exciting game, and the crowd was rocking.  Its not the storybook ending I would have liked, but it showed me alot of good things about this team and its fanbase.

If, at this point last year, during that abysmal stretch, you would have told me that, with almost the exact same roster, the Preds would be in fourth place, rallying from an 0-3 deficit, and an almost sold out crowd would be doing the famous TV timeout on a Monday in January, I would have called you crazy.

Why the Success?

Personally, I think its a combination of strong play on the ice, a really great job by the new marketing team, and (perhaps) the early demise of the Titans.  What are your thoughts?  Think its something else, or disagree with the premise entirely?  Vote in the poll or share it in the comments sections below.

The Poll

1 comment:

  1. I think all of the things you listed probably played some role, and I can think of at least 2 more additional factors:

    1) We were facing an Original Six team that we very rarely see at home (3rd time in franchise history I believe?)

    2) The game was tucked between 2 road trips, and therefore the only chance to see the Preds at home in a 3-week span.

    That said, I hope Monday's number was not just a fluke!