Sommet Deal Good, not Great, for Predators

Yesterday the Predators announced that a deal has been reached with the Sommet Center.  Allow me to provide my two cents on the deal.  I'm going to speculate about all of the details of this post, because none of them are public, so please keep that in mind.  Feedback is welcome in the Poll and in the comments section.

The Week In Preview

Last week = Bad.
This week... lets find out in the first "The Week in Preview"!

The Preds enter this week in tied for 6th place in the western conference.  Remember at the beginning of last week when some power rankings had us as high as 3rd in the league... ah, the good old days.

On the injury front, it appears that Joel Ward and Marcel Goc need maintenance days.   Replacing them will be Cal O'Reilly and (maybe) Colin Wilson.  I hope we get to see Wilson play at least one game.  Wilson showed some flashes before his groin injury slowed him down.  Big presence with the ability to score... who doesn't love that.  Everytime a player gets a maintenance day, I think to myself: well heck, I'd like to take one of those.  I'm currently thinking I'd want Jack Bauer as my replacement.  He'd definitely get more done in 24 hours than I ever could.  On the other hand, Nashville might teeter on the brink of a Nuclear/Bioterrorism/Disease-ridden apocalypse... which might make me have to miss the Thrashers game on Saturday.  I digress.

Goalie Rotation:  Head Coach Barry Trotz is signaling that his every-other-night goalie rotation may be coming to an end.  A reversal from his statement that there was no shutout rule this season, but probably good news none the less.  If nothing else, I think this gives the message of "hey goalies, one of you is going to get traded, and the other is going to start for us in the playoffs.  Who's going to step up?"

Games This Week: The line-up this week is perfect for a post-three-game-slump rebound.  The Preds (61 pts.) are at division Rival Columbus (49 pts) Tuesday, and that game is a must win simply because Columbus is so bad right now.    A win there will go a long way in boosting the Preds confidence and in the standings, because Friday the Preds play at Detroit (58 points), currently in 9th in the West.  That game is of course critical for positioning in the Standings.  Saturday the Preds come home for a Black-and-Blue night against the Atlanta Thrashers (52 points).

So to recap, we play three teams below us in the standings.  Three wins goes along way in making up for last week and keeping us in the hunt of home-ice advantage during the first round of the playoffs.  Three losses put us out of top 8.

Fearless, Perhaps Reckless, Prediction:  The Preds go 3-0 this week to rebound from a miserable dads' trip outing.


Outside of Hockey: The NFL pro-bowl is Sunday.  Congrats to Vince Young on being the 8th best AFC quarterback according to the fans a now two-time pro-bowler.  I generally never watch the Pro-Bowl, because, honestly, its boring.  However, I do love this one Pro-Bowl clip of Sean Taylor reminding us why punter's should never run the ball.

The Poll!

Personal Optimism & Stats Regarding Preds Attendance Numbers

In the game against the Maple Leafs on Monday, three themes that were bigger than the game got lost in the noise following was a very tough loss.

1. A great attendance number...
2. Which leads to an even better aggregate attendance number.
3. The return of the TV timeout.  

A Great Attendance Number

Monday, Jan. 18, 2010 vs. TOR: 16,510 in reported attendance.
Monday, Jan. 19, 2009 vs. NJD: 14,848 in reported attendance.

Monday, Jan. 18, 2010's game vs. TOR was nearly a sold out game.  Of the 21 Monday or Tuesday games played at home so far this year and last year, it was the second best attendance (with the best being last year's sold out season finale).

The statistics are to prove a point.  The attendance numbers are starting to look really strong in PredNation.  How strong?

An Even Better Attendance Number


According to my totally unofficial, home-brewed (but fairly predictive) calculations, Monday's game was pivotal.  All season, the Preds have been trailing behind their ticket sales from last year, by about 2%.  That margin, however, has been shrinking.  Last night's game flipped the script, if you will.

Through 25 games, the Preds are actually ahead of last year's paid attendance number.  Sure, its not by much, but that is not the point.  What is the point?  The "second half playoff push" that the Preds typically rely on has come on early, strong, and fast.  The "magic number" (i.e. the average paid attendance that is needed for the preds to average 14,000 paid attendance for the year) is 15084 +/-.  The paid (not reported) attendance for the last six games, 15528 +/-?  (The average reported attendance for the last six games was 16,220).  Barring a complete meltdown on the ice, expect that to continue and the Preds to beat the 14,000 paid attendance benchmark (again) by a comfortable margin.  March & April feature 12 home games that provide for a specular, and well attended, playoff push to the finish.

If I'm right [and though I trust my calculations based on publicly available information, I can't want for the next round of attendance numbers to be released, to let me know I'm right] it is a big accomplishment, given the early troubles for NHL attendance overall this year, the economy, etc.

Return of the TV Timeout


I know some die-hard fans and bloggers that I respect (including The View from 111) were furious at last night's game.  I can't argue with that.  But I can say this.  That was an exciting game, and the crowd was rocking.  Its not the storybook ending I would have liked, but it showed me alot of good things about this team and its fanbase.

If, at this point last year, during that abysmal stretch, you would have told me that, with almost the exact same roster, the Preds would be in fourth place, rallying from an 0-3 deficit, and an almost sold out crowd would be doing the famous TV timeout on a Monday in January, I would have called you crazy.

Why the Success?

Personally, I think its a combination of strong play on the ice, a really great job by the new marketing team, and (perhaps) the early demise of the Titans.  What are your thoughts?  Think its something else, or disagree with the premise entirely?  Vote in the poll or share it in the comments sections below.

The Poll

If you like KENNY BRITT, you'll love PATRIC HORNQVIST

In their first full years, they have come on the scene, dazzled with flashes of offensive talent, and do not hesitate to go to the hard places and take a big hit... that's Titans' WR Kenny Britt and Predators' RW Patric Hornqvist.  One's a first round pick, the other was picked last.  Both are big parts of their team's future. Oh, and only one has a fan favorite nickname... check the differences section for that one. [EDIT:  This was published before this morning's announcement of Britt's 800+ traffic ticket arrest.  Timing is a funny thing...].

Britt had a very good rookie campaign.  Hornqvist has established himself as a staple of the Preds’ offense.  Here’s a great description from Chris Burton at On the forecheck:

"Hornqvist has given opposing goaltenders nightmares this season, continually parking in the crease and screening shots. ... As the old saying goes, good things happen when you go to the front of the net, and Patric has proven that repeatedly, even willing to stare down a Shea Weber slap shot.  Hornqvist has also shown impressive versatility, prospering with any line combination the coaches have placed him on. ...The combination of Patric's scoring touch and hustle won him a spot on the Swedish Olympic team, and are what makes him my choice for the Nashville Predators' 1st-half MVP."

Not convinced?  The rave reviews don't just come from the Nashville faithful.  Check out this great article from The Toronto Star as well.

Similarities:

• Both are offensive players who are willing to pay a price to make good things happen.
• Britt was first on the team in reception yards with 701.  Hornqvist is currently first on the team in goals with 19.
• Both filled a role that fans demanded from their teams for years.  Britt was a big deep threat WR, while Hornqvist was a strong gritty winger who can plant in front of a goalie.  

Differences:

• Kenny Britt was a first round draft choice.  Hornqvist was MR. IRRELEVANT.  That's right, he was the LAST player taken in the 2005 draft.  Not bad for one of the Preds offensive stars and leading scorers.  You have to marvel at the Preds’ developmental system sometimes.
• One’s from New Jersey, the other is from Sweden.  I’ll let you guess which one is which.  HINT: the Swede was nominated to play on that country’s Olympic team in the 2010 winter games.
• Hornqvist always goes to the front of the net.  Britt has shown flashes of going over the middle.  Many, including myself, anticipate and expect Britt to step up more next season.
• Shortening names is common in Hockey... Arnott is Arnie, Legwand is Leggy, Sullivan is Sully.  Hornqvist?  Well everyone calls him "Horny."

Anatomy of a Goal

• Want to see a game winning example of Hornqvist's play, check out: Going to the Net - Why We Love Patric Hornqvist.

Not convinced of the analogy?  Think you've got a better one?  Share it in the comments section below.

The Poll

AOAG: Going to the Net - Why We Love Patric Hornqvist

PredNation, what a great win last night.  A fabulous defensive game ends in a big win for the Predators.  The 1-0 victory by the Predators, courtesy of a great defensive and goal tending game, and a gritty goal by my current favorite Predator, Patric Hornqvist.  

In this edition of Anatomy of a Goal, lets look at how Hornqvist's hard work and a timely defensive turnover to score the game winning (and only) goal of last night's game.