Why You Care: Bolts v. Preds

In this "Kick 'em While They're Down" edition of "Why You Care", lets look at the Predators' opponent tonight, the Tampa Bay Lightening.   The only thing worse than being a Tampa Bay Lightening fan is being a Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan (alot worse).  The lightening come into town having won only two of their last 10 games.  Let's examine how the predators need to take care of business against this Eastern Conference "also-ran" after the break.  (Also, in case you need something with more pictures, and missed last night's anatomy of a play, click here).

Their Words, Not Mine


Here's all you need to know about the state of the Bolts, from Bolts Blogger Jon Jordan<: "Simply stated, the Lightning are floundering right now."  He points out that the team has only scored nine goals in its last 13 games.  Nashville, on the otherhand, has scored 39 goals in its last 13 games, (and to add insult to injury, an impressive five last night).  The lightening are tied for next to last in the league in goals scored, and are one game out of next to last place in their conference.  [To be fair, the Eastern Conference standings are crazy right now, and it seems like half of the division is one game out of next to last place, but whatever, you get the point.]


Winners Win the Games They're Supposed to Win


In football, the montra goes that you have to beat the teams you are supposed to beat.  The (often) unstated rationale is that there are only 16 games, so a team can't afford to take a game off.  By extension, hockey teams with their lush and lengthy 82 game schedule, should be able to take a few games off and still be fine come playoff time.  NO!  You're confusing hockey with  basketball and baseball (and I don't know the first thing about NASCAR, but probably that... it seems like it goes on forever).  


The Predators have been playing a tightrope act that is "making the playoffs" in the last two years.  Last year, the Preds missed the postseason by 1 1/2 games.  The year before, we made it by 1 1/2 games.  Titans fans...  you know how it seems Jeff Fisher loves to win or lose every freaking football game on the last drive (Rams beatdown excluded)?  That's how the Predators are for the playoffs, and thats why we sometimes refer to them as the cardiac cats.  There's a reason that PredNation starts posting and talking about its statistical playoff chances months in advance.  [BTW PredNation, the odds are currently 50.8%] [BTW Titans fans, the odds for the Titans making the playoffs: 0.426%... so, how 'bout them predators, eh?].


Sufficed to say, this game is a game that winners win.


Playmakers Making Plays


You know you have a good fantasy football team (or heck, a real football team) when your top guys score points reliably and consistently.  Take a Chris Johnson for example.  It seems that no matter who the opponent is, CJ's going to find the end zone.  CJ, meet LW Steve Sullivan (#26) and RW Martin Erat (#10). Sully got the hat trick (a three goal game, which is different and far less life changing than a "Legwand Hat Trick") on Monday, and now has 17 points in his last 16 games.  Erat got his own hat trick four games ago.  They are centered by Captain Jason Arnott (#19), who leads the team in points, and together this line is consistently producing huge points.  


Silencing the Train Whistles


My car can't go as fast as Shea Weber can shoot a puck.  I need a new car and Shea needs to stop breaking (last season) predators' face, leg, and (this season) foot with his 103.4 mph slapshot.  That's actually a lie.  Weber needs to keep shooting... the Predators in front of him need to get out of the way.  Regardless, word is that Jordan Tootoo will be out three to four weeks with some broken bones in his foot.  


That's important.


Tootoo is a sparkplug.  He's a rolling mass of fury on the ice... and lately, he's been playing some pretty good hockey.  John Glennon at the Tennessean collected some quotes:


"He brings a lot to the team,’’ for ward Steve Sullivan said. "When he’s on the ice, he crea­tes a lot of attention toward him self because teams are on guard when he’s on the ice.  So he’ll definitely be missed.  He continues to grow every sin gle year. I feel like in the last two or three weeks, it’s probably the best hockey I’ve ever seen him play. So to lose him now, we just hope it’s not a long time.’’

How do opponents know to be on guard?  The crowd at the Sommet center blows on their train whistles.  That high pitched (somewhat annoying) sound used to indicate that a world of hurt was coming your way.  Sadly, those will be silent.  


K. Vanden Bosch Out, D. Ball in... So to Speak.


Think of that level of talent as the gap between Tootoo, and his likely replacement Wade Belak.  Belak can still dominate a few opponents an an enforcer, but he brings exactly zero offensive upside to the table.  As he doesn't have a highlight reel of goals, provided for your amusement is some "best fight" footage.



A Note on Fighting in Hockey
Potentially the most confused aspect of hockey by the casual observer is the role of fighting.  I will dedicate a blog post to it at some point.  For now, just understand that is calculated, purposeful, strategic, and has a lengthy and well enforced etiquette.

Anatomy of a Play: Why Faceoffs are so Important

On this installment of Anatomy of a Play, we look at Steve Sullivan's hat trick as a perfect example of why faceoff wins are so important in hockey.  We dig deeper into this peculiar mix of finesse and fury, complete with video, photos, and cheesy telestration, after the break.

First, a Quick Primer of Faceoffs

Faceoffs are how each stoppage of play gets resumed in hockey.  Winning faceoffs establishes possession of hte puck for your team.  The more faceoffs you win, the more often you have the puck, and the more likely you are to score (or less likely you are to get scored on).  Think of starting field position in football.  Kickers who routinely kick touchbacks, and punters who can pin an opponent inside the 20, are the unsung heroes of many a game.  Any real titan fan has to admit how important Craig Hentrich has been to so many Titan Wins.

The same true for centers in hockey.  A premium is placed on centers who win faceoffs (a.k.a. "draws") consistently.  For example, former predator Scott Nichol, now of the San Jose Sharks, is currently third in the league, winning 62% of his faceoffs.  Predator Captain Jason Arnott (#19) currently wins exactly 50%.  Fortunately, he won this draw that led to the Sullivan Goal.

Sullivan's Third Goal

Breaking Down the Faceoff

1.  Arnott wins the faceoff cleanly, passing the puck to Steve Sullivan (#29).  Steve Sullivan immediately passes the puck back to defenseman Dan Hamhuis (#2).  The pass from Sully to Hamhuis is so fast that I actually missed it on the reply twice.  Judging by the speed of the pass, and the angle/grip of Arnott's, Sully, and Hamhuis' sticks, it my fair guess that this play is a designed play.

2. The Columbus center, Antione Vermette's, (#50) first instinct is to chase the puck to Steve Sullivan.  However, because Sullivan got the puck to Hamhuis so quickly,  Vermette is pulled slightly out of position.

3. Hamhuis draws the blue jacket toward him, and then passes the puck to defenseman Francis Boullion (#51).  Notice that Boullion is pretty far away from the faceoff circle, is close to the blue line, and far away from any Columbus players.  This is because he was backing up since the faceoff win, in expectation of a pass.  (I say this because, if Boullion were in a more defensive mode, he'd likely be closer to center ice to prevent a push up ice by the Blue Jackets)

4. Notice how much room Boullion has to work with.  This amount of open ice is because simultaneous penalties have resulted in a 4-on-4 situation.  This is an offensive dream come true.  Boullion could walk forward and take a quick wrist shot, if he wanted to.  That would be a bad option here, though, because the Blue Jacket goalie has shifted from top-to-bottom of the screen following the pass to Boullion.

5.  The Columbus center Vermette is now pretty far out of position, due to the quick passes by Arnott, then Sullivan, then Hamhuis.  As Vermette has always had defensive responsibility for this side of the ice,  he is now in a mad-dash to get back into position and to cover Boullion.

6. Boullion is patient with the puck.  He waits until Vermette is on top of him before returning the pass on Sullivan.

7.  The Blue Jacket winger is actually NOT responsible for Sullivan in this situation, but is covering Hamhuis, who is behind Sullivan and off-screen to the left.  However, noticing the defensive breakdown, he is scrambling to cover Sullivan.

8.  Notice how after winning the faceoff, Arnott makes a drive toward the net.  Arnott is a big, strong center who can take up alot of valuable space in front of the net.  This is good because not only is he completely occupying one defender, but the other defender is clearly out of position and seems lost in the shuffle.  Did I mention that Sullivan has his stick practically over his head, waiting for a big, fat, juicy slapshot?

9.  From the behind the goal angle, we can see the result of Boullion's patience on the return pass: a wide open shootling lane.  The Blue Jackets are out of position as a result of chasing the quick Nashville passes.  The goalie is trying to get set up in front of the shot, but to no avail.  Sullivan knocks home an easy slap shot for the hat trick.

Five Seconds?

There you have it, the face off win sets up four passes and a slapshot goal... all in five seconds.  Obviosly crisp passing and knowing where your other teammates are on the ice is important.  But this goal, which really put the Blue Jackets away, would have never happened without that all important face-off win.

I hope that helps explain the importance of the face-off.  As always, this blog is still very much a work in progress.  Please send any questions or feedback to preds101@comcast.net.

If you like BEN ROETHLISBERGER, You'll Love RICK NASH

Welcome to the second eagerly anticipated installment of "If You Like ____, You'll Love ____." Today's listing looks at the captain of tonights rival, the Columbus Blue Jackets.   Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Rick Nash of the Columbus Blue Jackets:  these two large offense machines have the potential to terrorize opposing defenses, hit an opponent in the mouth, and put up points in bunches.  More importantly, both of their teams still on the outside of the playoff race, looking in.  On the field, they have similar playing styles.  Off the ice... well they're pretty different.  Regardless, you're head-to-head comparison after the break!

Basically, the players are built the same, burst on the scene at an early age, play the same physical style, and have Ohio ties.

Scoring Ability

Check out Nash's top 10 goals here:


Similarities

1. Rookie of the Year:  Both were nominated, though Ben actually won Rookie of the Year.
2. Power:  Both are power players.  Both can deliver a big hit when necessary.  The physical play is especially important to Rick's game.  
3. Size:  Rick = 6'4, 220 lbs.  Ben = 6'5, 240 lbs.  Both are pretty big guys for their position.
4. Ben grew up in Ohio and Ben play's in Ohio.  I've never been there, but I'm sure its lovely.  
5. Both can score some serios points.  In Rick's second season (age 19), he scored 41 goals, tying Jarome Iginla and Ilya Kovalchuk (two really top notch players) for most goals scored that season.  In Ben's second season, he lead the league in yards per attempt, and won a little thing called a Superbowl (sure, it was the worst winning QB performance in Superbowl history... but its like they say about a doctor who graduates last in his class...).

Differences

1. Ben Rethliswhatever has a ridiculously long name.  Rick Nash's = bloggers best friend.
2. Ben has won 2 superbowls... Rick has been swept lost one playoff series.
3. Rick is well known for his work in the community.  He won the NHL Foundation Player Award in 2009, which is awarded to the player "who applies the core values of hockey—commitment, perseverance and teamwork—to enrich the lives of people in his community".  Ben... well, he's best known off the ice for a terrible motorcycle accident and a sexual assault allegation.

Rick Nash against the Predators

Currently Rick's 33 points leads his team, and is significantly better than the Predators top players: Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont both are tied for 20 points.  Regardless, the Blue Jackets are have been terrible, and I mean TERRIBLE, against the predators.  (The Preds have won the last 13 against the Blue Jackets, which, IMHO, is one of the worst team names in the NHL).  On the other hand, Ben and the Steelers, if you remember, beat the Titans in a heartbreak of a NFL season kick-off game, and started a run that crushed Titan spirits everywhere.


A Disclaimer


The comparison between Rick Nash & Ben Roethlisberger was not my first choice, and isn't the most persuasive comparison outthere. I expect to get blasted on the comments about it. I was planning an amazing Like/Love with Jordan Tootoo... but thanks to Shea Weber & Tootoo's broken foot, that will have to wait 3-4 weeks. In the interim, I decided to profile Rick Nash on the advice that a friend gave me: "I know to root for the good guys... tell me who to root against for the bad guys." For these Like/Love posts, the goal is to get it 80% right and 80% accessible to the less-than-average fan, then to get the discription 100% right, and sacrifice accessibility in the process.


That being said, if you have a better comparison, please feel free to leave it in the comments. I'd love to hear it!

Anatomy of a Play: Why Top Tier Defensemen are so Important

The predators lost in OT to the Red Wings, 3-2, tonight.  The OT goal was a heartbreaker for preds fans, and a great example of what makes leagues top defensive players so great.  Let's dive deeper into this D-Man let down in the first installment of "Anatomy of a Play". (With pictures and video after the break).

The Situation


The OT period has just started.  OT, unlike regulation play, is a four-on-four situation (plus goalies) for five minutes.  If no one scores, it goes to a shootout.  The goal is to ensure that someone scores.  Imagine if the NFL, in overtime, required the defense to play without a free-safety.  Same situation.  You'd see alot more "long bombs" in OT.  That is exactly what the Predators saw tonight.

Anatomy of the Play


Here is the game winning goal.  The Predators turn the puck over in the offensive zone (bad, but it happens).

At 0:07 in the clip, the "long bomb" happens to Todd Bertuzzi (red arrow).  Think of Bertuzzi as a LenDale White.  He's big, but not huge.  He's pretty fast, but not lightning fast.  He's good, but not great.

At 0:09 seconds, Bertuzzi has the puck.  Notice that that the Predator Defenseman Klein, #8, has a step on Bertuzzi.   Just like the NFL, speed is so important in hockey.  Klein is now playing the role of free safety.  Its his job to make sure no one gets by him.  Will he "make the tackle" (i.e. knock Bertuzzi of the puck)?

Ah... no.   Speed kills.  Notice what happens between 0:09 and 0:10:  Klein loses the step that he has on Bertuzzi, now it is neck-and-neck, a race to the goal.  This is where the difference between top D-men, and second string, is so important.  Klien is a younger defenseman.  He's going to be very good, but he did not make the play here.  Here, he's Donnie Nickie, not Michael Griffin.

All is not lost at this point.  Bertuzzi's stance (above) is called "building a wall".  He is using his body to shield the puck from Klien.  Think of this as a running back covering the ball with both hands, running with his head down near the goal line.  He won't fumble, but he's not sprinting.  Bertuzzi is not sprinting either. (Notice, that in this position, Klein must continue to skate toward the bottom of the screen.  His body position won't let him skate toward the top).

So Klein didn't make the first play by knocking Bertuzzi off the puck.  He is skating full speed on Bertuzzi's left, and the puck is on the other side of Bertuzzi.  Right now Klein has two options: (1)Klein can either make a play for the puck (think of this as trying to strip the football), which is less likely to stop the play but also less likely to draw a penalty.  (2) Or, Klein can put a shoulder into Bertuzzi (i.e. make the tackle), which is more likely to draw a penalty much much more likely to break up the play. [Think to yourself right now, what would a Griffin or Courtland Finnegan do in this situation... he'd blow the opponent up!]

Unfortunately, Klein picks option two, and tries to play the puck.  To be fair, this is a "safer" play if it works.  Had Griffin gone for the hit, he would have very well ended up in the penalty box.  Thus, the Predators would have been down four-players-to-three.  Regardless, Klein switches sides to "get around the wall".  He is now behind Bertuzzi.  Worse, remember how the "building the wall" forced Bertuzzi to skate toward the bottom of the screen?  Well, to defend against that, Pekka Rinne moved toward the bottom of the screen to get ready to make a save.  How that Klein is behind Bertuzzi, there is no more "wall", and Bertuzzi is much more agile.

Rinne, the goalie, has already committed to going toward the bottom of the screen.  Bertuzzi is free to juke back to the top of the screen.  Klein was not strong enough to force the puck off of Bertuzzi's stick once Klein made his move.  Bertuzzi is able to put the puck into a relatively open net.

Weber Wouldn't Have Done That


I can't find the video, but I think I'm right when I say that a similar play happened during the second period.  That time Weber was the defenseman.  Instead of making an extra move to play the puck, Weber "played the body".  That's why Weber is an All-Star Defenseman, and Klein is very good, but still a work in progress.

Wrap Up

So there you have it, folks.  Jeff Fisher hates missed tackles and tucking in his shirt.  I too hate missed defensive plays.  That is what we had tonight.  The decision made between 0:08 and 0:10 lost us the game.  However, I must congratulate the team overall.  After a disastrous first period the team really rallied.   Coming out of this game with 1 point is huge.  (I will do a post on how the NHL standings work and why the are so confusing later... for now, think of an OT loss as "1/2 a win"... because that's what it is).

Thank You - Preds Bloggers!

A special thanks to Dirk Hoag at www.ontheforecheck.com and The Oates family at www.predsontheglass.com for the shoutouts on the new blog.  Both are really top notch hockey blogs.  I may have missed (or will miss) a few others.  Let me just say that the blogs on the right are all worth reading in a real way (I know I do).

Why You Care About Tonight's Game Against the Red Wings

The Titans have the Colts... The Preds have the Red Wings.
The Titans hate facing Peyton Manning... The Preds hate facing Nicklas Lidstrom. (See below for my first installment of "If you like ___, you'll love ___").


A Hated Division Foe

As a predators fan, when someone says to you "I'm a red wings fan" the nicest thing you can say in response is "well, no one's perfect." You wont hear that many niceties tonight at the Sommet Center. The Predators hate the Red Wings. For many years, the Red Wings thought of the Preds as a nuisance, at best.

For the newcomer, think of the New England Patriots of the NHL. Not because their coach dresses like a homeless person. They have an organization that wins year-after-year-after-f'ing-year. Much like a marathon of "Keeping Up with the Kardashians", it gets old very quickly.

vs.

Remember the days when the Baltimore Ravens kept knocking the Titans out of the Playoffs. (And how much the city loathed them in return. Ray Lewis, man I hate that guy). The same is true for the Red Wings. Twice those bastards have knocked us out of the playoffs in the first round.

Fortunately those days are over. The predators can actually beat a healthy Red Wings Team to a pulp from time to time, including last year's 8-0 beatdown. A few weeks ago the Preds took down the Wings in front of a home crowd. Final score: 3-1 good guys.

The Detroit team that rolls into town tonight is hurt... badly. It's like the Red Wings got into some gambling debt with the Hockey Gods (a term you will hear a lot in hockey, a.k.a "luck"), and couldn't pay up, so they got their figurative knee-caps bashed. Its like the injured 0-6 to start the season Titans. Not the 5-0 healthy VY titans (nor the 0-1 didn't show up against the Colts Titans).

Attendance and an Energetic Fan Base

Attendance is always important for the predators. I'm sure there will be a whole blog post about that in the near future. The Red Wings games are almost a guaranteed sell out. Sometimes Predators fans are known (seriously) as the loudest fans in the NHL. We're credited with a TV timeout ovation that may well have saved the franchise.

Some of the games this season have been raukous, loud, and entertaining. Some, less so. If you are looking for a high energy, fun night, tonight should be the night. It will likely be a sell-out crowd. As of now, there are very limited tickets remaining.

(If you have never been to a game before, you are in for a treat. Its not like the Titans tame/weak/uncreative cheers: Ti-Tans! De-Fense... Ti-Tans! De-Fense! Bo-Ring! Be prepared to tell the Red Wings goalie that he sucks. Alot. Loudly. As do the Red Wings. And the players. And the Coach. It is, if nothing else, cathartic).

Playoffs?

I won't go into a lot of detail just yet, because it is early in the season. However, division games are critical for playoff positioning. A win tonight potentially puts the preds 1/2 a game out of being the division leader (which guarantees home ice advantage through at least the first two round of the playoffs). A loss tonight could potentially drop us out of playoff contention. I say again, its early. However, you know how this year the Titans may go 9-7 and if they do they have a long shot of making the playoffs. The same thing happened to the Preds last year. One more division win (like tonight's game) and the Preds could have been in.

If you like PEYTON MANNING, you'll love NICKLAS LIDSTROM

Similarities

1. Captains of their Team
2. Guaranteed Hall of Famers
3. Squeaky-clean, family-friendly personalities
4. Lead team to championship
5. Still playing for the team that drafted them (Manning = 1998), (Lidstrom = 1989)
6. Multiple Pro-Bowls (Manning = 9) and All Star Games (Lidstrom = 11)
7. Offensive POTY (Manning = 1) and Defensive POTY (Lidstrom = 6)
8. Crazy Smart

Differences:

1. Peyton makes ALOT more money in advertisements.
2. Peyton QBs the offense.  Lidstrom is a defensive powerhouse.  However, he does QB the powerplay for the Red Wings.
3. Lidstrom delivers punishing hits.  Manning never seems to hit or get hit by anything.
4. Manning = 1st pick in the draft.  Lidstrom = 53rd.

That is all for my inagural post. I am sure these will get better as time goes on. For now, thanks for reading and lets go Predators!